GDP in the third quarter of 2024 grew by 7.40%: conquering the impact of natural disasters and international fluctuations
Vietnam's economic picture in quarter of 2024 is bright with positive imprints, especially for the business sector and industrial field in the third. Although Vietnam's economy faced many negative impacts from natural disasters and challenges of the international market, it is still recorded impressive growth. That growth raised many expectations that the annual GDP growth which will be targeted from 6.5% to 7% is completely feasible.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 is estimated to increase by 7.40%, bringing the growth in the first nine months of the year to 6.81%. This is a higher increase than expected, especially in the context that some Northern provinces were severely affected by typhoon No. 3.
GDP chart of the Third Quarter from 2011 to 2024. Source: General Statistics Office.
Newly established enterprises grow stably
Despite financial difficulties and fierce competition, Vietnamese enterprises are constantly increasing in scope and number. In September 2024, the whole country had 11.2 thousand newly established enterprises, with a total registered capital of 92.8 trillion VND. In spite of the decrease compared to the previous month in the number of enterprises and registered capital, in the first nine months, Vietnam still had 121.9 thousand newly established enterprises, increased by 3.4% in comparison with the same period last year.
This is a testament to the strong potential of the economy, the confidence and determination of the business community in recovery and development. At the same time, it shows the belief in the domestic market as well as the ability to exploit opportunities from the international market.
Industrial and Service fields lead the market
As for industrial field, especially the processing and manufacturing industries, continues to be the main motivation on leading the market. In the third quarter of 2024, the added value of the industrial field reached 9.59%, of which processing and manufacturing industry increased sharply by 11.41%, the highest level in the first three quarters of the year. Thanks to stable consumer demand and production, the service industry also contributes greatly to the growth with many positive indicators.
Challenges for agriculture in the face of natural disasters
Despite achieving many positive results, the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors still face many difficulties due to the impact of natural disasters, especially typhoon No. 3. Third-quarter growth of those sectors was only 2.58%, the slowest ratio in recent years. Many areas of rice and cattle cultivation were severely damaged, which were reducing the growth rate of the agricultural field to 2.03%.
However, these difficulties have been partly offset by a boom in industrial and service fields, creating momentum for overall economic growth.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh strives for GDP growth of over 7% in 2024 - Photo: VGP-Nhat Bac
Consumer price index (CPI) is stable, macroeconomics is under control
Another factor contributes to reinforce the belief in Vietnam's ability to achieve the growth goals is that the consumer price index (CPI) remains stable. In September 2024, CPI expanded by only 0.29% compared to the previous month, bringing the year-on-year increase to 2.63% contrasted to the same period in 2023. Core inflation rose only 2.69%, indicating effective price control and stable domestic purchasing power.
Import and export: Strong recovery motivation
Import and export activities in the first nine months of 2024 also achieved positive results. Total import-export turnover is estimated at 578.5 billion USD, up 16.3% over the same period last year. In particular, export turnover increased by 15.4%, reaching $299.6 billion, while import one increased by 17.3%, showing a strong signal of domestic production recovery.
The motivations of recovery and challenges in the fourth quarter of 2024
In the context that the global economy and politics continue to fluctuate, Vietnam's economy in the fourth quarter of 2024 faces many major challenges. With a growth target of 6.8% to 7% for the whole year 2024, the economy needs the continuous efforts of both the political system and the whole people.
The government is focusing on several key measures to ensure the growth is achieved, including:
Macroeconomic stability: Strictly control prices, ensure a large balance of the economy and stabilize prices in areas affected by natural disasters.
Promoting domestic consumption and market development: Promote e-commerce, encourage the use of Vietnamese goods, and develop new business models such as digital transformation and circular economy.
Export boost: Take advantage of signed free trade agreements to boost exports, especially in large and potential markets.
Accelerating disbursement of public investment capital: Speed up the construction progress of national projects, and at the same time attract high-quality and selective foreign investment capital.
Natural disaster response: Improve the capacity of disaster forecasting and warning to promptly respond to and protect agricultural production, for disease prevention on crops and livestock.
Owing to getting positive signals from the first nine months of the year, Vietnam's economy is facing a great opportunity to achieve the full-year GDP growth target from 6.5% to 7%. To achieve these milestones, the economy needs to maintain the growth rate in the fourth quarter at 5.7% to reach 6.5%, and 7.5% to reach the target of 7%.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office, strong growth results from the processing, manufacturing and service industries, along with the recovery of the business sector, will be the main motivations to help the economy continue to move forward in the fourth quarter and fulfill the target of the whole year.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office, informed about the socio-economic situation in the third quarter and nine months of 2024 on the morning of October 6th. Picture: General Statistics Office.
Expectations for sustainable growth amidst difficulties
Despite facing many challenges, Vietnam's economy in the first nine months of 2024 has gotten encouraging achievements. This is reflected not only in stable macroeconomic indicators, but also in the strong growth of exports, tourism, and new enterprises. However, in order to achieve the full-year growth target, Vietnam needs to continue its efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability, promote domestic consumption, and overcome difficulties due to the impacts of natural disasters and international economic fluctuations.
The fourth quarter of 2024 will be a decisive time for Vietnam to fulfill its growth goals, while ensuring a solid foundation for sustainable development in the coming years.
T-VAN HILO SERVICE JSCCohesion – Companionship – Development

